In case anyone is chomping at the bit to know what's up with all the aurora lately, there is a massive X17 flare that's helping to set the night sky on fire.

Space Weather Support is a good place to check if that massive sun spot you can see through the haze at sunrise is what you think it is. It's also a good resource to keep up to date on the solar storms that create the northern lights.

The moon is now setting too late for me to get out early for a peek at anything. I welcome the fall and the dark setting in early.

This clock of sorts give me all the data I need to forcast the conditions of the sky. Check and see if there may be one for your area.

The information below was sent to the RASC-Winnipeg email list.

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A s t r o A l e r t

14 September 2005

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


NEW X-CLASS SOLAR FLARES EXTEND AURORA WARNING

Active sunspot region 10808 produced two new X-class solar x-ray
Flares during the last 24 hours. The most energetic of these produced an
Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection that is expected to impact the
Earth late this afternoon or evening. The impact is expected to reignite
Auroral storm conditions. If it arrives as-expected, the resulting
intensification of auroral activity may place North America in a good
position for observing the activity TONIGHT. The mid-latitude auroral
activity warning has been extended through to 16 September. The next 3 to 4
days will be critical, as this is the time that Region 808 is "pointed" most
directly toward the Earth.

Coronal mass ejections follow essentially straight trajectories to the
Earth, unlike the energetic protons that stream from strong solar events.

For spacecraft and their sensitivity to energetic protons (the Radiation
environment), the most vulnerable period will be later this week when
Region 808 begins to approach the western solar limb. At that time, the
Earth should be best "connected" to the magnetic field lines that emanate
from Region 808 and gradually spiral outward toward the Earth in an
archimedes-type spiral pattern. Energetic protons from major solar flares
often reach the Earth fastest (and are associated with the highest energies
and densities) when the Earth is magnetically connected to the flaring
region. This is because energetic protons are charged particles, and as such
they prefer to follow the magnetic lines of force outward from the Sun.

The updated warning statement is appended below.


MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Updated: 11:45 UTC on 14 September 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 16 SEPTEMBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14-15 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14-16 SEPTEMBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 50, 30, 20 (14 - 17 SEPTEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS
OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

Active region 10808 continues to produce energetic solar flare
activity. The latest X-class flare was associated with an Earthward-directed
(full-halo) coronal mass ejection that is expected to arrive at the Earth
near the end of the UTC day of 14 September (for North American observers,
this translates to the late afternoon and/or evening hours of Wednesday, 14
September). This disturbance will have the potential to produce periods
of moderate to strong auroral storm conditions. Observations should be
possible over wide-spread mid-latitude locations. We are expecting to see
the passage of a magnetic cloud with this disturbance, which could further
enhance the potential for storm conditions (preceded or succeeded by
quieter conditions as the IMF rotates away from a favorable orientation).

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) on
16 September, with a good chance that it will be extended beyond the
14th. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html